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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction

The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".

Nighttime Reality

As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.

Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.

Continuous Dangers

Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.

Every new proposal from American administration follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.

Tactical Assessments

It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.

Current Realities

Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.

Summary and Prospects

It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.

While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.