🔗 Share this article

A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion

The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Each authors two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.

Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."

Appeal for Broader Debate

Westminster must engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."